Here it is...

as promised, my look at this year's Oscar race.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Should win: Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: George Clooney (Syriana)
Should win: George Clooney (Syriana)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Should win: Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Should win: Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)

DIRECTOR
Will win: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Should win: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)

MUSICAL SCORE
Will win: John Williams (Munich--also nominated for Memoirs of a Geisha)
Should win: John Williams (Munich)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Brokeback Mountain

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Crash
Should win: Good Night and Good Luck

PICTURE
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Brokeback Mountain

I'm predicting a big night for the gay cowboys. Although I am warming up to Munich, after reading some different perspectives on it and seeing it from a different angle. I think it is Spielberg's best effort since Schindler's List. The final image and the thematic parallels to today's world situation are just haunting. I just think the movie was misunderstood by many (myself included) and the reaction to it has been polarized.
I also have cooled down on my feelings toward Crash. It is just too obvious and preachy, although it would not be surprising to see Oscar lean that way, especially if the Academy wants to support a social issue film without touching off a potential controversy by picking Brokeback Mountain.
I loved Good Night and Good Luck, but I just can't see it winning much, and in almost every category there is another nominee that I think was just a little better. George gets his catch-all reward with the supporting actor nod.
I'm looking forward to the show on Sunday, especially with Jon Stewart. Keep a notepad handy to tally all the Dick Cheney jokes.
But for now, it's a nice fish dinner (yeah, Ash Wednesday) and then off to Carver for the Iowa vs. Penn State basketball game. Penn State, you're really mean, nobody likes you, you suck.
GO HAWKS!!